What Will Climate Change Be Like In 2030

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What Will Climate Change Be Like In 2030 – If annual emissions are not significantly reduced by billions of tons, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will continue to increase. A high concentration is expected:

Many greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for a long time. As a result, even if emissions stop, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will continue to rise for hundreds of years. Moreover, if we stabilize concentrations and the current composition of the atmosphere remains unchanged (which requires a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions today), global warming will continue. It will take decades for the greenhouse gases to fully respond to the heat-trapping oceans. The ocean’s response to greenhouse gases and higher temperatures will continue to affect climate for decades to hundreds of years to come.[2]

What Will Climate Change Be Like In 2030

What Will Climate Change Be Like In 2030

For more information on greenhouse gases, see the Greenhouse Emissions on the Causes of Climate Change page.

Chapter 1 — Global Warming Of 1.5 ºc

Because it is difficult to predict future emissions and other climate-related factors, scientists use different scenarios, using different projections of future economic, social, technological and environmental conditions.

This figure shows the greenhouse gas concentrations for four different emission pathways. The upper path assumes that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise throughout the current century. The lower path assumes that emissions will increase between 2010 and 2020 and then decrease. Source: Image derived from data from the Representative Concentration Pathways database (version 2.0.5)http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb Click image for the larger version.

We have seen global warming in recent decades. Climate change is expected in the future. Climate models make the following major changes in temperature.

Projected changes in global average temperature for the four emission pathways (rows) for three different time periods (columns). Temperature changes are relative to averages for the years 1986-2005. The pathways are from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: RCP2.6 – very low emissions pathway, RCP4.5 – medium emissions pathway, RCP6.0 – medium high emissions pathway and RCP8.5 – high road (assuming emissions continue to rise). during the century). Source: IPCC, 2013Exit Click on the image for a larger version.

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Observed and projected changes in global average temperature under four emission pathways. The vertical bar on the right shows the temperature at the end of the century, and the line shows an average forecast for the climate type. Changes refer to the average for the years 1986-2005. Source: IPCC, 2013 Release, FAQ 12.1, Figure 1. Click image for larger version.

Estimated US temperature change for mid-century (left) and end-of-century (right) under the high (top) and low (bottom) scenarios. The parentheses on the thermometer represent the possible range of model predictions, but lower or higher results are possible. Source: USGCRP (2009)

Precipitation and storms, including rain and snow, may also change. However, some of these changes are smaller than those associated with temperature. Forecasts show that future rainfall and storm surge will vary seasonally and regionally. Some areas may experience less rain, some may experience more rainfall, and some may experience little or no change. Precipitation is expected to increase during the rainy season in many areas, and the storm track is expected to move poleward.[2] Climate models predict changes in rainfall and storms.

What Will Climate Change Be Like In 2030

Projected changes in global annual precipitation for the low-evaporation scenario (left) and the high-evaporation scenario (right). Precipitation is expected to increase in the blue and green areas and decrease in the yellow and brown areas by the end of the century. Source: IPCC, 2013Exit Click on the image for a larger version.

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The map shows the change in precipitation by the end of this century compared to the years 1970-1999 under the high-level scenario. For example, in winter and spring, climate models predict that the northern part of the United States will be wet and the southern part dry. Exactly where the transition between wet and dry zones occurs is not very certain. Confidence in the predicted change is highest in the area with diagonal lines. The change in white area is not predicted to be greater than expected from natural variation. Source: US National Climate Assessment, 2014. Click image for larger version.

Arctic sea ice is already shrinking.[2] In the Northern Hemisphere, the area covered by snow has been decreasing since about 1970.[2] Permafrost temperatures have increased in Alaska and much of the Arctic [2] over the past century.[1] For more information on the latest changes in snow and ice, visit the Snow and Ice page in the indicators section.

In the next century, it is expected that the glaciers will decrease, the glaciers will decrease, the snow cover will decrease, and the permafrost will melt. Possible changes in ice, snow and permafrost are described below. These maps show projected ice loss in the Arctic and Antarctic. (a) the map shows the average ice extent (right ice-covered area) for the years 1986-2005. Maps b) and c) show climate model simulations of sea ice thickness in February and September near the end of the 21st century under low (b) and high (c). In the Arctic, there is less snow in February (bluer); September has almost no snow (almost all blue). Projected changes in Antarctic ice are more bleak. Source: IPCC, 2013 Click image for larger version.

Water Flowing From Greenland Ice Sheet Source: NASA Global Warming Contributes to Sea Level Rise: Ocean Expansion; melting of snow and ice; and causing parts of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to melt or flow into the oceans.[3]

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Global sea level has risen about 7.5 inches since 1870.[2] Estimates of future sea level rise vary for different regions, but global sea levels over the next century are expected to rise faster than in the past 50 years.

Studies predict that sea levels will rise by 1 to 4 meters by the year 2100, with an uncertainty range of 0.66 to 6.6 meters.[1]

The contribution of warming, glaciers and ice sheets to sea level rise is well understood, but the effects of climate change on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is an area of ​​research. less educated and active. Current ice sheet changes are expected to raise sea levels by 1.2 to 8 inches by the end of this century.[3]

What Will Climate Change Be Like In 2030

Past and projected sea level rise from 1800 to 2100. The orange line on the right shows the current projected sea level rise from 1 to 4 meters at 2100; The wider range (0.66 meters to 6.6 meters) reflects uncertainty about how ice and snow will respond to climate change. Source: NCA, 2014. Click on the image for a larger version. Regional and local factors affect future sea level rise for specific coastlines around the world. For example, sea level rise depends on changes in land level caused by land subsidence or sea level rise. Assuming these historical geological forces continue, a 2 meter rise in global sea level by the year 2100 would result in the following sea level rise:[4]

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Sea level rise depends on changes in local currents, wind, salinity, water temperature, and proximity to thin ice.[2]

Ocean acidification adversely affects many marine species, including plankton, molluscs, shellfish and corals. As ocean acidity increases, the availability of calcium carbonate decreases. Calcium carbonate is the main building block of the shells and bones of many marine organisms. If the CO atmosphere

Increasing attention today, the combination of climate warming and ocean acidification could slow the growth of coral reefs by about 50% by 2050.[ 5]

As carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere dissolves in the oceans, the acidity of the oceans increases. This change is measured in pH levels, with lower values ​​being more acidic. Ocean pH has decreased by 0.1 pH since pre-industrial times, equivalent to a 30% increase in acidity. As shown in the graph and map above, ocean pH is projected to drop even further by the end of the century as CO2 concentrations are projected to rise in the near future.[1][2]Source: IPCC, 2013, Chapter 6. Click image for larger version.

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[1] USGCRP (2014) Melillo, Jerry M., Therese (TS) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, eds., 2014: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: Third National Climate Assessment. US Global Change Research Program.

[2] IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Tsing, G.-K. Platner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nowels, Y. Xia, W. Becks, and P.M. Midgley (ed.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.

[3] NRC (2011). Climate forcing targets: emissions, concentrations and impacts over decades to millennia. National Science Council. National Academies Press, Washington, DC, USA.

What Will Climate Change Be Like In 2030

[4] USGCRP (2009). Impacts of global climate change

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