What Will Climate Change Do By 2050 – Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to rise unless the billions of tons of our annual emissions are drastically reduced. The increased concentration is expected:
Many greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for a long time. As a result, even if emissions stop rising, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to rise and remain high for hundreds of years. Furthermore, if we stabilize current concentrations and the composition of the atmosphere remain constant (which requires a significant reduction in current greenhouse gas emissions), the temperature of the upper air will continue to warm. This is because the oceans, which store heat, need many decades to fully respond to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. The ocean’s response to higher greenhouse gas concentrations and higher temperatures will continue to affect the climate for decades to hundreds of years to come.[2]
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What Will Climate Change Do By 2050
To learn more about greenhouse gases, please visit the Greenhouse Gas Emissions page and the Greenhouse Effects section of the Causes of Climate Change page.
Climate Change Will Make Parts Of The U.s. Uninhabitable. Americans Are Still Moving There. — Propublica
Because it is difficult to project far future emissions and other human factors that affect the climate, scientists use different scenarios with different assumptions about future economic, social, technological conditions. , and environment.
This figure shows the expected greenhouse gas concentrations for four different emission pathways. The highest path assumes that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise throughout the century. The lower path assumes that emissions will peak between 2010 and 2020, then decline. Source: Graph created from data in the Representative Concentration Pathways Database (Version 2.0.5) http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb Click image to view larger version.
We have already observed global warming in recent decades. Future temperatures are expected to continue to change. Climate models project the following significant changes in temperature.
Projected changes in global average temperature under four emission pathways (lines) for three different time periods (columns). Temperature changes are relative to the 1986-2005 average. The pathways from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: RCP2.6 is a very low emissions pathway, RCP4.5 is a medium emissions pathway, RCP6.0 is a medium-high emissions pathway, and RCP8.5 is the high emissions pathway (It is assumed that emissions continue to rise throughout the century). Source: IPCC, 2013Exit Click on the image to see a larger version.
What Will The World Look Like In 2050?
Observe and project changes in global average temperature under four emission pathways. The vertical bars on the right show possible temperature ranges until the end of the century, while the lines show projections averaged over different climate models. The changes are relative to the average from 1986-2005. Source: IPCC, 2013Exit, FAQ 12.1, Figure 1. Click image to view larger version.
Projected temperature change for mid-century (left) and end-of-century (right) in the United States under higher (top) and lower (bottom) emissions scenarios. Brackets on thermometers represent the likely range of model projections, although lower or higher results are possible. Source: USGCRP (2009)
Precipitation patterns and storm events, including rain and snow, are also likely to change. However, some of these changes are less certain than changes related to temperature. Projections indicate that future rainfall and storm variability will vary seasonally and regionally. Some regions may have less rain, some more rain, and some have little or no change. The amount of rain falling during heavy rain events is likely to increase in most regions, while storm tracks are expected to shift poleward.[2] Climate models project the following rainfall and storm surges.
Projected changes in global annual mean precipitation for the low emission scenario (left) and the high emission scenario (right). The blue and green areas are expected to experience an increase in precipitation by the end of the century, while the yellow and brown areas expect a decrease. Source: IPCC, 2013Exit Click on the image to see a larger version.
A Vision Of What 2050 Will Look Like If We Fight Climate Change
The maps show the expected future change in precipitation for the end of this century, compared to 1970-1999, under a higher emissions scenario. For example, in winter and spring, climate models agree that northern areas of the United States tend to be wetter and southern areas drier. Exactly where the transition between wet and drier areas occurs is uncertain. Confidence in expected changes is highest in the areas marked with diagonal lines. The changes in the white areas are not greater than what is expected from natural variation. Source: USA National Climate Assessment, 2014. Click on the image to view a larger version.
Arctic sea ice is shrinking.[2] The area of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has been decreasing since the 1970s.[2] Permafrost temperatures in Alaska and much of the Arctic [2] have increased over the past century.[1] To learn more about the latest snow and ice changes, visit the Snow and Ice page in the Indicators section.
Over the next century, sea ice is expected to continue to decline, glaciers will continue to shrink, snow cover will continue to decrease, and permafrost will continue to melt. Potential changes in ice, snow and permafrost are described below. These maps show the expected loss of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic. The maps in a) show the average ice concentration (the relative area covered by sea ice) from 1986-2005. Maps in b) and c) show climate model simulations of sea ice thickness in February and September at the end of the 21st century under low (b) and high (c) emission scenarios. In the Arctic, February is expected to have less ice (more blue); September is predicted to be almost ice-free (almost all blue). Projected changes in Antarctic sea ice are more subtle. Source: IPCC, 2013 Click on the image to view a larger version.
Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet Source: NASA Warming temperatures contribute to sea level rise through: expansion of ocean water; Melting mountain glaciers and ice caps; and causes parts of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to melt or flow into the oceans.[3]
Europe’s Climate In 2050
Since 1870, global sea levels have risen by about 7.5 inches.[2] Estimates of future sea level rise vary for different regions, but global sea levels for the next century are expected to rise at a higher rate than in the past 50 years.
The studies project global sea level to rise another 1 to 4 feet by the year 2100, with an uncertainty range of 0.66 to 6.6 feet.[1]
The contribution of thermal expansion, ice caps and small glaciers to sea level rise is relatively well studied, but the effects of climate change on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are poorly understood and represent an active area of research. Changes in ice sheets are currently expected to cause 1.2 to 8 centimeters of sea level rise by the end of this century.[3]
Past and projected sea level rise from 1800 to 2100. The orange line on the right shows the current projected sea level rise of 1 to 4 meters by 2100; the wide range (0.66 feet to 6.6 feet) reflects the uncertainty of how glaciers and ice sheets will respond to climate change. Source:NCA, 2014. Click on the image to view a larger version. Regional and local factors influence future relative sea level rise for specific coastlines around the world. For example, relative sea level rise depends on changes in land elevation that occur as a result of subsidence (subsidence) or uplift (rise). Assuming these historical geologic forces continue, a 2-foot rise in global sea level by 2100 would result in the following relative sea level rise:[4]
Climate Change Could Cut World Economy By $23 Trillion In 2050
Relative sea level rise also depends on local changes in currents, wind, salinity, and water temperature, as well as the proximity of thin ice sheets.[2]
Ocean acidification harms many marine species, including plankton, molluscs, mussels and corals. As ocean acidification increases, the availability of calcium carbonate decreases. Calcium carbonate is an important building block for the shells and skeletons of many marine organisms. If the atmosphere CO
As concentrations continue to rise at their current rate, the combination of climate warming and ocean acidification will slow coral growth by nearly 50% by 2050.[5]
The oceans are becoming more acidic as carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dissolve in the atmosphere and oceans. This change is measured on the pH scale, with lower values being more acidic. Ocean pH levels have decreased by about 0.1 pH units since pre-industrial times, which equates to an increase in acidity of about 30%. As shown in the graph and map above, ocean pH levels are expected to continue to decline by the end of the century as CO2 concentrations are expected to rise in the near future.[1][2]Source:IPCC, 2013, Chapter 6. Click on the image to view a larger version.
If We Don’t Act On Climate Change Now, Our Human Civilization Will End By 2050
[1] USGCRP (2014) Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds., 2014: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program.
[2] IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basics Publication. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley (dir.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
[3] NRC (2011). Climate Stabilization Goals: Emissions, Concentrations and Impacts for Decades to Millennium Emissions. National Research Council. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, USA.
[4] USGCRP (2009). Effects of Global Climate Change on
Projected Changes In Number Of Plant Species In 2050 — European Environment Agency
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