What Will Happen In Climate Change – The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will continue to rise unless billions of tonnes of our annual emissions are significantly reduced. Increased concentrations are expected to:
Many greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for a long time. As a result, even if emissions stopped increasing, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere would continue to rise and remain high for hundreds of years. Also, if we were to stabilize the concentrations and composition of today’s atmosphere (which would require dramatic reductions in current greenhouse gas emissions), surface temperatures would continue to warm. This is because the oceans, which store heat, need many decades to fully respond to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. The oceans’ response to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases and higher temperatures will continue to affect the climate for decades to hundreds of years.[2]
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What Will Happen In Climate Change
To learn more about greenhouse gases, visit the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Greenhouse Effect section of the Causes of Climate Change page.
Ipcc 2021 Report: How Bad Will Climate Change Get?
Because it is difficult to predict far future emissions and other human factors that affect the climate, scientists use a variety of scenarios using different assumptions about future economic, social, technological and environmental conditions.
This figure shows estimated greenhouse gas concentrations for four different emission pathways. Hovedveien assumes that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise during this century. The lower path assumes that emissions peak between 2010 and 2020 and then decline. Source: Graph created from data in the Representative Concentration Pathway Database (version 2.0.5) http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb Click the image to see a larger version.
We have already noticed global warming in recent decades. Future temperatures are expected to change further. Climate models project the following important temperature-related changes.
Projected changes in global average temperatures under four emission pathways (rows) for three different time periods (columns). Changes in temperatures are compared with the average for 1986-2005. The pathways are from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: RCP2.6 is a very low emissions pathway, RCP4.5 is a medium emissions pathway, RCP6.0 is a medium high emissions pathway, and RCP8.5 is a high emissions pathway ( Emissions ). expected to continue to rise over the course of the century). Source: IPCC, 2013 Output Click on the image to see a larger version.
Biodiversity Redistribution Under Climate Change: Impacts On Ecosystems And Human Well Being
Observed and projected changes in global mean temperature under four emission trajectories. The vertical bars on the right show the likely temperature ranges at the end of the century, while the lines show average projections for a range of climate models. The changes are compared with the average for 1986-2005. Source: IPCC, 2013Exit, FAQ 12.1, Figure 1. Click on the image for a larger version.
Projected mid-century (left) and end-of-century (right) temperature change in the United States under higher (top) and lower (bottom) emissions scenarios. Brackets on thermometers represent the likely range of model projections, although lower or higher outcomes are possible. Source: USGCRP (2009)
Precipitation and storm patterns, including rain and snowfall, are also likely to change. However, some of these changes are less certain than temperature-related changes. Projections show that future changes in rainfall and storms will vary by season and region. Some regions may experience less rainfall, some may experience more rainfall, and some may experience little or no change. The amount of rain falling in the event of heavy precipitation is likely to increase in most regions, while the storm track is predicted to shift poleward.[2] Climate models predict the following changes in rainfall and storms.
Projected changes in global annual mean precipitation for the low emissions scenario (left) and the high emissions scenario (right). Blue and green areas are projected to experience an increase in precipitation by the end of the century, while yellow and brown areas are projected to experience a decrease. Source: IPCC, 2013 Output Click on the image to see a larger version.
What Is Climate Change?
The maps show projected future changes in precipitation for the end of this century, compared to 1970-1999, under the higher emissions scenario. For example, in winter and spring, climate models agree that northern areas of the United States are likely to be wetter and southern areas drier. There is less confidence in exactly where the transition between wetter and drier areas will occur. Confidence in the projected changes is highest in the areas marked with diagonal lines. Changes in white areas are not predicted to be greater than expected from natural variation. Source: US National Climate Assessment, 2014. Click on the image for a larger version.
Arctic sea ice is already declining.[2] The area of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased since approx. 1970.[2] Permafrost temperatures in Alaska and much of the Arctic [2] have increased over the past century.[1] To learn more about recent snow and ice changes, visit the Snow and Ice page in the Indicators section.
Over the next century, sea ice is expected to continue shrinking, glaciers will continue to shrink, snowpack will continue to shrink, and permafrost will continue to melt. Potential changes in ice, snow and permafrost are described below. These maps show projected losses of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic. The maps under a) show the average ice concentration (relative area covered by sea ice) from 1986-2005. Maps in b) and c) show climate model simulations of sea ice thickness in February and September near the end of the 21st century under low (b) and high (c) emissions scenarios. In the Arctic, February is predicted to have less ice (more blue); September is predicted to be almost ice-free (almost completely blue). Projected changes in Antarctic sea ice are more subtle. Source: IPCC, 2013. Click on the image to see a larger version.
Meltwater flowing from the Greenland ice sheet Source: NASA Warming temperatures contribute to sea level rise by: expanding ocean water; melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps; and causes parts of the ice sheet on Greenland and Antarctica to melt or flow into the sea.[3]
Climate Change Might Lead To A Scary Future
Since 1870, global sea levels have risen by about 7.5 inches.[2] Estimates of future sea level rise vary for different regions, but global sea levels are expected to rise faster over the next century than they have in the past 50 years.
Studies predict that global sea levels will rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100, with a range of uncertainty of 0.66 to 6.6 feet.[1]
The contribution of thermal expansion, ice caps and small glaciers to sea level rise is relatively well studied, but the effects of climate change on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are less understood and represent an active area of research. Changes in the ice sheets are currently expected to lead to 1.2 to 8 inches of sea level rise by the end of this century.[3]
Past and projected sea level rise from 1800 to 2100. The orange line on the right shows the current projected range of sea level rise of 1 to 4 feet by 2100; the wider range (0.66 feet to 6.6 feet) reflects uncertainty about how glaciers and ice sheets will respond to climate change. Source: NCA, 2014. Click on the image for a larger version. Regional and local factors will affect future relative sea level rise for certain coastlines around the world. For example, relative sea level rise depends on changes in land elevation that occur as a result of subsidence (subsidence) or uplift (uplift). Assuming these historical geological forces continue, a global sea level rise of 2 meters by 2100 will result in the following relative sea level rise: [4]
Clouds Could Transform Our Understanding Of Climate Change
Relative sea level rise also depends on local changes in currents, winds, salinity and water temperature, as well as the proximity of thinner ice sheets.[2]
Ocean acidification adversely affects many marine species, including plankton, molluscs, shellfish and corals. As ocean acidification increases, the availability of calcium carbonate will decrease. Calcium carbonate is an important building block for the shells and skeletons of many marine organisms. If atmospheric CO
Concentrations continue to rise at current rates, the combination of global warming and ocean acidification could slow coral growth by nearly 50% by 2050.[5]
Oceans are becoming more acidic as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dissolve in the oceans. This change is measured on the pH scale, with lower values being more acidic. Ocean pH levels have decreased by about 0.1 pH units since pre-industrial times, corresponding to about a 30% increase in acidity. As shown in the graph and map above, ocean pH is projected to decline further by the end of the century as CO2 concentrations are expected to increase for the foreseeable future.[1][2]Source: IPCC, 2013, Chapter 6 Click image to view larger version .
How To Talk To Kids About Climate Change With These 6 Tips
[1] USGCRP (2014) Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, eds., 2014: Impacts of Climate Change in the United States: Third National Climate Assessment. United States Global Change Research Program.
[2] IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Exit. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley (ed.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
[3] The Norwegian Refugee Council (2011). Climate stabilization goals: emissions, concentrations and impacts over the decades to the millennium. National Research Council. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, USA.
[4] USGCRP (2009). Global consequences of climate change in
Climate Change To Impact Mountains, Human Activity On A Global Scale
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