What Will The Technology Be Like In 2050 – Amidst the dire effects of climate change, AI can discern a futuristic or dystopian life.
F uturism is a bowl game: if it is right, it seems trite; If you’re wrong, it’s like IBM co-founder Thomas Watson declaring in 1943 that there was room in the world for “maybe five computers.”
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What Will The Technology Be Like In 2050
David Adams was aware of these risks when he wrote about the future of technology in the Guardian in 2004, and even cited the same assumption as an example of how it could go wrong. In our opinion, Adams has definitely done better than Watson in 2020. Seen today, he avoided many of the pitfalls of technological speculation: no sci-tech promises of flying cars or teleportation or faster-than-light travel.
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But in some ways, this forecast was too pessimistic. Technology has truly made giant leaps and bounds over the past 16 years, and none more so than artificial intelligence. “Artificial intelligence cannot survive unpredictable changes and events,” Adams wrote, explaining why robots may not be able to interact with humans in the near future.
“Fundamentally, it’s very difficult to get a robot to distinguish between a photo of a tree and a real tree,” Paul Newman, a robotics expert at the University of Oxford, told Adams. Fortunately, Newman proved his ambitions wrong: In 2014, he founded Oxbotica, a company that develops and sells driverless car technology to automakers around the world, hoping to solve the problem he mentioned.
If we stop worrying about details, there are two important things in the forecast for 2020: one is technology and the other is society.
“Device lovers can control their phones, PDAs [tablets] and MP3 players with one button,” Adams writes. The idea of massive connectivity and connectivity between personal electronics was right. But there was a very obvious loophole in that assumption: the smartphone. After half a century of single-purpose electronics, it was hard to figure out what a single device was, but just three years after Adams published his work, the iPhone came along and changed everything. Be sure to bring a separate MP3 player; In reality, in 2020, people won’t carry separate cameras, wallets, or car keys.
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Not predicting smartphones is ignoring the advancements in technology. But another missing piece is how society will react to change. The forecast for 2004 is optimistic in principle. Adams wrote about the impact of biometric health data on physician computers; About washing machines that automatically organize their service according to availability in the “electronic organizer”; and about radio frequency identification (RFID) chips in clothing that trigger specific ads or program your phone based on your location. It’s all a sense of trust: these changes will be good, and the companies making them will have good intentions.
Robots are here to stay … Automated production lines in China. Photo: China News Service/VCG via Getty Images
“There’s a loss of privacy that’s going to be very difficult for people, and we don’t see how we’re going to deal with that,” admitted one of Adams’ interviewees when describing the technology in 2020. ., how much information it gives and where it’s going – that business is not having to wait in line at the supermarket – then people will get their business.” In fact, in the last decade and a half, the vast majority of people have not been given the opportunity to accept the trade, and their It is becoming increasingly clear that most would never agree if they understood what was at stake.
If the Guardian missed the arrival of the smartphone just three years before the iPhone came out, how can we look 10 times ahead today and do better? We can safely imagine that people will still have bad hands, feet, and bad breath if they don’t wash for a long time, but the world of 2050 will be very different in many ways.
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But there are forces working in our favor. The Internet is deeper now than it was in 2004, and its chaotic impact on our lives shows no sign of abating, but is at least unpredictable. Similarly, smartphone penetration in the West is at an all-time high. The world will change over the next 30 years, but it won’t change because more Brits or Americans get phones.
Other assumptions can be as simple as following a trend to a logical conclusion. By 2050, the transition to electric cars will be complete, at least in the developed world, as well as in developing countries such as China that are beginning to prioritize air quality over cheap technology.
The “next billion” will be online mostly on low-cost smartphones that receive the ubiquitous mobile connection. But it is difficult to guess what they are doing on the Internet. Two opposing trends are at work in 2020: on the one hand, service providers, especially Facebook, are trying to use subsidy deals to push newly connected countries into an outdated version of the Internet. If they succeed on a large scale, most of the benefits of the web will be stolen from all nations and reduced instead to Facebook, passive media players, and a few payment companies.
But a push from national regulators and rival carriers in places like India could bring new countries into the virtual network instead. That is, unless national regulators emulate China, Iran, and Russia and push in the opposite direction to prevent access to Facebook by creating national networks. Do they think it would be better to extend the benefits of the web to their communities rather than requiring their citizens to use home services? If it makes it easier to maintain control, that’s another benefit.
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James Bridle, author of the disturbing book The New Dark Age, says the debate should not forget who the next billion people really are. “I think about how the tech industry talks about the ‘next billion users’ without acknowledging that those people are going to be hot, wet and angry,” he says. , socially and technologically – for this fact.”
Because, if we predict the future from simple trends, there’s one more thing we have to acknowledge: the weather. What will change is not for this section, but there are many human reactions.
One possibility is Plan A: humanity reaches absolute zero in terms of productivity over time. In this case, we will live in a world where meat replaces plant protein in our daily consumption, electric internet transport reaches the suburbs and beyond, video conferencing and remote attendance quickly disappear on airplanes, business and thermal insulation disappear. British house wall. (Look, it can’t all be high quality.)
If plan A fails, there is an option to switch to plan B. It’s a world where massive emissions of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere turn the sky milky white and an entire generation never sees a clear blue sky. reflect more sunlight and stop the greenhouse effect. It’s where we run huge refineries that do nothing but extract carbon dioxide from the air and pump it underground into unused oil wells. It’s the abandonment of entire cities and the evacuation of populations to avoid the worst consequences we can’t prevent.
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Plan B, or geoengineering, is neither optimistic nor pessimistic about the future of humanity, says Holly Jean Buck, author of After Geoengineering. “The worst thing is that we’re going to fail Plan A and fail Plan B. In the next decade, I think [I’m going to try some kind of geoengineering].” Right now it’s less, I think because people don’t want to talk. We don’t have much knowledge, it takes 20 or 30 years to develop them. Around mid-century means climate change will become evident.
But for Buck, the difference with Bridle isn’t the technology. “The choice of whether we have a future or a dystopian life is about social attitudes and social change.
“Now we’re in this era of suspension. Society used to be able to plan for the long term: people would build long-term infrastructure and think bigger. Now that’s not the case: we’re going for a quick fix. To allow for more deliberate decision-making, precious things need a culture change.”
There’s another possibility: technology saves the day.
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