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Comparison of five population scenarios with 2100 (United Nations, Wittgenstein, Lancet, Earth4All-Too Little Too Late, Earth4All-Giant Leap). Credit: Callegari B., Stoknes P.E., “People and Planet: 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Potential Living Standards within Planetary Limits”
- 1 What Will World Population Be In 2050
- 2 Population: The Numbers
- 3 Visualizing The World Population In 2100, By Country
What Will World Population Be In 2050
In November 2022, the world passed the 8 billion people milestone, but new analysis suggests the global population will reach below 9 billion by 2050 and begin to decline.
March Of The Mega Cities: World’s Total Will Rise To 37 By 2050
The new projection is much lower than most major population estimates, including the UN’s. The researchers further say that if the world takes a “giant leap” in investment in economic development, education and health, the global population could reach 8.5 billion by mid-century.
The new estimates, by researchers from the Earth4All initiative of the Global Challenges Foundation, have been published as a working paper titled “People and Planet: 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Possible Living Standards Within Planetary Boundaries.”
The team used a new system dynamics model, Earth4All, to explore two scenarios this century. In the first scenario, “too little too late”, the world continues to develop economically at the same pace as it has for the past 50 years. Many poor countries are free of extreme poverty. In this scenario, researchers estimate that the global population could peak at 8.6 billion in 2050 and decline to 7 billion in 2100.
In the second scenario, called the “Giant Leap,” scientists estimate that the population will reach 8.5 billion by 2040 and fall to about 6 billion people by the end of the century. This has been achieved through unprecedented investment in poverty reduction – especially investment in education and health – and extraordinary policy changes in food and energy security, inequality and gender equality. In this scenario, extreme poverty would be eradicated in a generation (by 2060), which has a significant impact on global population trends.
Population: The Numbers
“We know that rapid economic growth in low-income countries has a big impact on fertility rates. When girls have access to education, fertility rates fall and women gain economic power and have access to better healthcare,” says Per Espen Stoknes, Earth4All Project Leader and Norwegian Business Director for the Sustainability Center at the school.
“Few well-known models simulate population growth, economic development and their interrelationships simultaneously,” says Beniamino Callegari, associate professor at Christiania and member of the Earth4All modeling team.
The analysis uses 10 world regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, China and the United States. Currently, population growth is highest in some countries in Africa, such as Angola, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria, and in Asia, such as Afghanistan.
“If we assume that these countries have adopted successful economic development policies, we can expect the population to peak earlier,” says Callegari.
The World In 2050: Pwc
The team also analyzed the relationship between population and planetary excess, which is linked to Earth’s carrying capacity. Contrary to public popular myths, the team found that population size is not a major driver of crossing planetary boundaries, such as climate change. Rather, it is the extremely high material footprints of the world’s richest 10% that destabilize the planet.
“Humanity’s main problem is luxury consumption of carbon and biosphere, not population. Places with rapid population growth have a much smaller environmental footprint per person than places that reached their peak several decades ago,” said Jørgen Randers. Co-author of Earth4All and “Limits to Growth”.
According to the team’s demographic projections, the entire population could achieve a standard of living above the UN minimum standard without significant changes in current development trends, assuming an equitable distribution of resources.
The researchers also concluded that at current population levels it is possible for everyone to escape extreme poverty and pass the minimum threshold for a dignified life with access to food, shelter, energy and other resources. However, this requires a (much more) equal distribution of resources.
A Meta Analysis Of Projected Global Food Demand And Population At Risk Of Hunger For The Period 2010–2050
“A better life for everyone is only possible if the rich elite’s extreme consumption of resources is reduced,” concludes Randers.
More information: People and Planet: 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Potential Living Standards within Planetary Limits, www.earth4all.life/s/E4A_Peopl … nd-Planet_Report.pdf
Citation: Report: Global population may fall below 9 billion in 2050s (2023, March 27) Retrieved October 1, 2023, from https:///news/2023-03-global-population-peak-billion-2050s. html
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World Population Growth
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If you already have an interest in population, you are probably aware of the United Nations population estimates. Usually updated every two years, they are generally considered the top dog in the (admittedly small) population projection world and are the most frequently mentioned. The final estimates were published on World Population Day in July 2022.
The UN actually has a good record with past projections, especially with their median scenario. In 1968 they estimated 5.44 billion. in 1990 – the actual number was 5.38 billion. (0.06 billion difference). In 2000, the projected population for 2020 was less than 8 billion, and we hit 7.8 billion. (out of 0.2 billion).
File:world Population Growth Rate 1950–2050.svg
In 2019, they expected only a one-in-four chance of global population plateauing before 2100. In response to signs of slowing growth, in 2022 it revised its outlook, now predicting a fifty-fifty chance of population peaking. point between 2080 and 2100, and possibly declining at the end of the century.
So not perfect, but they certainly stand up to scrutiny when you consider the number of variables involved.
However, there are many variables and demographers take different approaches to trying to predict how they will affect future population growth. There is strong agreement on our trajectory: steady growth in the second half of the century followed by a peak and a decline. What the number will be and when that peak will be, however, is a matter of great debate.
IIASA is an international research institute based near Vienna, Austria, and its modeling is used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Visualizing The World Population In 2100, By Country
Using a different methodology than the UN, IIASA produces scenarios (shared socio-economic pathways (SSP)) based on likely developments in the factors affecting fertility rates – mainly based on family planning use and education.
Their latest scenario and projections, Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, published in 2018 with support from the European Commission;
SSP1 is below UN forecasts with a peak of 8.7 billion, falling to 7.3 billion. in 2100. It’s an optimistic view that essentially depends on us doing better than we’ve ever done in terms of things like ensuring access to birth control and ensuring more children. Can complete training.
A more likely SSP2 shows the population peaking at 9.7 billion around 2070 and still more than 8 billion by the end of the century. Under SSP3 there is no peak, the population is over 13b and still rising in 2100.
World Population Growth Could Slow From 2065 Onwards”
The new kid on the block is this research institute at the University of Washington, Seattle, working in global health statistics and impact assessment.
Published in the Lancet in 2020, the IHME unpacks the factors driving fertility and produces a range of scenarios. Its main projection sees the population rising to 9.7 billion by 2064, the same rate as the United Nations estimates, before falling to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
Beyond that, the difference seems dramatic – but the uncertainty of long-term projections is a critical element here –
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